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 marine heatwave


Is this the key to preventing a Super El Niño? Scientists want to dim the SUN to shield the oceans from heatwaves

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Former Olympian seen in handcuffs as Trump threatens'years in jail' and more arrests after vandals SABOTAGE Reflecting Pool with'corrosive and destructive chemicals' Angelina Jolie's son Pax, 22, surfaces in LA after bombshell revelation about his relationship to Brad Pitt Mortifying truth about Clavicular's'botched' nose job: Infertile influencer's'trans' admission to friends... as insider reveals what's said behind closed doors - and twisted secrets that'll leave fans floored Keir Starmer'will announce as early as Monday that he is quitting as Prime Minister' after spending weekend locked in tense talks about his future with his wife Victoria at Chequers Inside America's new fattest town: Burgers are the size of your head, gyms lie empty and custom mobility scooters carry 800lb loads... as we investigate why Ozempic just DOESN'T work Call me cynical, but the real reason Gruesome Twosome Harry and Meghan are returning to the UK is just so obvious... and highly humiliating: MAUREEN CALLAHAN I lost 50lb without jabs using this easy but overlooked method. But I still felt dowdy - until I discovered these expert anti-ageing fashion and beauty tips. No one can see the real reason Jelly Roll divorced Bunnie XO. Wyndham Clark's stunning girlfriend pays tribute to polarizing golfer as he stands on the brink of US Open glory TV star mom, 46, who appeared on'quitting everything to change your life' show died in fire at luxury Caribbean beach resort that sent 1,700 tourists running for their lives Giorgia Meloni rips'senseless' attacks from Trump as Italian Prime Minister refuses to back down amid G7 feud Scientists propose radical new theory of consciousness - and claim it doesn't depend on flesh and blood Embattled Alexi Lalas makes controversial World Cup declaration amid tension with Fox colleagues: 'Makes you look like a weak poser' Stingy fast food giant named America's favorite restaurant AGAIN... and experts think they know why Blake Lively runs errands in frumpy outfit after reconciling with ex-BFF Taylor Swift... miles away from reported'bachelorette party' Grace Kelly's lookalike granddaughter, 27, wows in bikini snaps...as she packs on the PDA during beach getaway Is this the key to preventing a Super El Niño? As scientists warn that the coming Super El Niño could be the worst in recorded history, one group of researchers has proposed a drastic solution.


Improved Forecasts of Global Extreme Marine Heatwaves Through a Physics-guided Data-driven Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods still have certain limitations, especially in the most extreme MHWs. In this study, to address these issues, based on the physical nature of MHWs, we created a novel deep learning neural network that is capable of accurate 10-day MHW forecasting. Our framework significantly improves the forecast ability of extreme MHWs through two specially designed modules inspired by numerical models: a coupler and a probabilistic data argumentation. The coupler simulates the driving effect of atmosphere on MHWs while the probabilistic data argumentation approaches significantly boost the forecast ability of extreme MHWs based on the idea of ensemble forecast. Compared with traditional numerical prediction, our framework has significantly higher accuracy and requires fewer computational resources. What's more, explainable AI methods show that wind forcing is the primary driver of MHW evolution and reveal its relation with air-sea heat exchange. Overall, our model provides a framework for understanding MHWs' driving processes and operational forecasts in the future.


ORCA: A Global Ocean Emulator for Multi-year to Decadal Predictions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ocean dynamics plays a crucial role in driving global weather and climate patterns. Accurate and efficient modeling of ocean dynamics is essential for improved understanding of complex ocean circulation and processes, for predicting climate variations and their associated teleconnections, and for addressing the challenges of climate change. While great efforts have been made to improve numerical Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), accurate forecasting of global oceanic variations for multi-year remains to be a long-standing challenge. Here, we introduce ORCA (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst), the first data-driven model predicting global ocean circulation from multi-year to decadal time scales. ORCA accurately simulates the three-dimensional circulations and dynamics of the global ocean with high physical consistency. Hindcasts of key oceanic variables demonstrate ORCA's remarkable prediction skills in predicting ocean variations compared with state-of-the-art numerical OGCMs and abilities in capturing occurrences of extreme events at the subsurface ocean and ENSO vertical patterns. These results demonstrate the potential of data-driven ocean models for providing cheap, efficient, and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction. Moreover, ORCA stably and faithfully emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for climate projections. The model will be available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/ORCA.


Thousands of humpback whales starved to death after marine heatwave

New Scientist

The number of humpback whales in the North Pacific Ocean fell by 20 per cent between 2012 and 2021, according to a study that used artificial intelligence to identify individual whales from photos of their tails. The decline coincided with a massive marine heatwave sometimes called the blob, which began in 2013 and lasted until 2016. The unprecedented intensity of the blob was almost certainly the result of global warming. The findings suggest that around 7000 whales starved to death because of the marine heatwave, says Ted Cheeseman at Southern Cross University in Australia. The blob is known to have caused mass die-offs of many other animals, such as seabirds.